CDC - Excess Death

Notes

Source: CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm)

Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to COVID-19, beyond the number of deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between observed numbers of deaths and expected numbers. This visualization provides weekly data on excess deaths by jurisdiction of occurrence. Counts of deaths in more recent weeks are compared with historical trends to determine whether the number of deaths is significantly higher than expected. Counts of deaths from all causes are provided, including deaths due to COVID-19. As many deaths due to COVID-19 may be assigned to other causes of deaths (for example, if COVID-19 was not mentioned on the death certificate as a suspected cause of death), tracking all-cause mortality can provide information about whether an excess number of deaths is observed, even when COVID-19 mortality may be undercounted. Additionally, deaths from all causes excluding COVID-19 were also estimated. Comparing these two sets of estimates — excess deaths with and without COVID-19 – can provide insight about how many excess deaths are identified as due to COVID-19, and how many excess deaths are reported as due to other causes of death. These deaths could represent misclassified COVID-19 deaths, or potentially could be indirectly related to COVID-19 (e.g., deaths from other causes occurring in the context of health care shortages or overburdened health care systems).

This visualization includes several different estimates:

  • Number of excess deaths: A range of values for the number of excess deaths was calculated as the difference between the observed count and one of two thresholds (either the average expected count or the upper bound of the 95% CI), by week and jurisdiction. Negative values, where the observed count fell below the threshold, were set to zero.